In a recent discussion, Joseph Lubin, co-founder of Ethereum and head of Consensys, expressed his expansive vision for the future valuation of Ether. On June 19, he took to social media to elaborate on a research note that compared ETH to “digital oil,” while asserting that the analysis did not fully embrace the potential of Ethereum.
“This piece of analysis is profoundly insightful,” he noted initially. “Most readers will appreciate its depth and feel inspired by its conclusions. However, the piece suffers from a significant drawback—it doesn’t adopt an adequately optimistic perspective.”
The Potential of Ethereum Exceeding Global Economies
Lubin’s assertion posits that Ether will serve as a foundation for a “hybrid human-machine intelligence society,” providing value that could vastly exceed the current global GDP of $113.8 trillion. “It’s not an unreasonable point,” he stated, “to propose that the value operating on and moving through Ethereum—central to the upcoming decentralized Web3—could be magnitudes larger than today’s economic benchmarks. The rapid growth in sectors like energy, chip production, and data centers, coupled with the acceleration brought by AI, supports this hypothesis.”
He also revisited the classic debate between Bitcoin and Ethereum, depicting BTC as “Gold 2.0” while positioning ETH as a foundational component of a programmable economy. “As Bitcoin should be viewed through the lens of Gold 2.0,” Lubin reiterated, “Ethereum should be assessed in correlation with the evolving decentralized global economy.” He emphasized the significance of accommodating the surge in digital activity driven by AI on decentralized platforms.
Lubin presented a thought experiment launched earlier in June. “Imagine a hypothetical trust-enhancing diamond commodity with the power to enhance every transaction, agreement, or relationship… how much value could that possibly add? 10% to global GDP? 100%? Even 1,000%?… That asset is ETH.”
Lubin believes Ethereum’s uniquely decentralized validator network renders Ether the “gold standard of trust globally.” He argues that this premium trust aspect, combined with the demand for transaction fees likened to “digital oil,” could elevate ETH’s value far beyond any historical financial benchmarks.
A Closer Look at Current Market Dynamics
At this point, there exists a significant gap between aspirational predictions and the actual market capitalization of Ether. On June 19, approximately 120 million ETH was trading around $2,525 each, giving Ethereum a market capitalization close to $307 billion, or merely 0.3% of the global output. This supply is on a decline; over 35 million ETH—representing about 29% of total supply—is currently secured in proof-of-stake contracts, representing an all-time high.
Lubin interprets this reduction in supply as a precursor to future growth, not a conclusion. “Both of these models,” he reflected regarding the digital oil and trust commodity paradigms, “will contribute to a significant monetary premium for Ether.”
The question remains whether Ether can realistically “surpass” the global economic output—a feat no singular asset has achieved. Yet, Lubin’s conceptual diamond presents higher stakes: as programmable trust potentially emerges as a primary production resource, evaluating ETH solely as a transaction utility might be, in his words, “not optimistic enough.”
As of the latest updates, ETH was valued at approximately $2,523.
