Recent market trends indicate that short-term cryptocurrency holders are facing financial strains, reflected in the latest data. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has seen a decline to approximately 0.94, while Bitcoin hovers around the $85,500 mark. This situation suggests many new investors are exiting at a loss, which can often result in a volatile market response. Such selling activities can lead to swift price fluctuations. At times, a rebound follows, while in other instances, a continued decline may occur.
The Cycle of Market Corrections: A Historical Perspective
Historical patterns reveal a recurring theme in market behavior. Past significant corrections have seen SOPR values sink to around 0.87 in early 2019 and fall between 0.88–0.90 during the tumultuous periods of 2022–2023.
In 2023, short-term holders have encountered challenging periods on three notable occasions: August–September 2024 (with STH SOPR at around 0.98), April 2025 (registering 0.94), and the current situation in November 2025 (also around 0.94).
This recent downturn echoes earlier stress patterns in the market. Traders recall that capitulation from short-term holders often precedes phases of stabilization, followed by a resurgence in value.
BTC – The tides are turning, but..
“A bounce-back seems very probable in the near term, but a drop below the $80,000 mark would significantly increase the likelihood of facing a more challenging period ahead.” – By @DanCoinInvestor pic.twitter.com/VZ1M2MnvaO
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 24, 2025
Analyzing On-Chain Signals and Market Indicators
Current data from CryptoQuant presents a mixed picture, with some signals raising concerns. The Bull Score Index currently reflects a low 20. Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average, raising alarms that breaching the $80,000 level could signal a prolonged downturn.
Conversely, the recent downturn places Bitcoin about 32% beneath its all-time high from early October, after experiencing a roughly 10% drop in just one week. Analysts are keeping a close eye on these metrics for insights into future movements.
Liquidity Trends and Potential Liquidation Events
Liquidation scenarios indicate a significant short exposure within the $87K to $95K range. Data from companies like Ash Crypto and Coinglass suggest that a 15% upswing in price could trigger approximately $8.5 billion in liquidations.
This sets the stage for a rapid price surge if buying pressure exceeds short-seller bets. Analysts emphasize a downward resistance level that Bitcoin must surpass.
If a successful breakout occurs, predictions suggest a possible rise of 10% to 12%, pushing prices towards $96,500. Thus, a powerful price movement could shift market dynamics favorably.
If Bitcoin sees a 15% surge, over $8.5 billion in shorts could be liquidated. pic.twitter.com/F9FcqhVyTl
— Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) November 23, 2025
Two Possible Outcomes for the Market’s Next Move
Market players are currently assessing two primary scenarios. One interpretation suggests that this current selling phase represents the closing move of a mid-cycle correction, followed by a potential recovery and accumulation phase.
The alternate view posits that these selling pressures signify the dawn of a more profound market adjustment that could take considerable time to navigate. While a drastic plunge of 70% from the all-time high is deemed improbable by some experts, the risk remains if critical support levels fail.
A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin’s Future
Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture. Recent sales from short-term holders occurred at a loss again, with liquidity clusters concentrated in the $87K to $95K region, where vital indicators also suggest a state of tension.
In the coming days and weeks, decisions made by traders and institutional players will likely determine Bitcoin’s future trajectory—either pushing prices higher through forced liquidations or dragging them down if demand fails to pick up.
Image sourced from Unsplash, chart courtesy of TradingView
