In a recent two-hour interview recorded in Abu Dhabi at Token 2049, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao shared a remarkably optimistic perspective on Bitcoin, the most enthusiastic since he stepped down from Binance. Speaking with Farokh Sarmad for Faroq Radio and having just completed a four-month federal sentence in the U.S., Zhao indicated that several key trends have pushed Bitcoin into a significant “institutional phase.” He projected that the price could potentially reach six figures, and even stretch into seven.
“I’m looking at a range between five hundred thousand and a million dollars for this market cycle,” Zhao stated, while also acknowledging the challenges of predicting price peaks. He identified three main factors contributing to a unique “reflexive loop” that previous bull markets lacked: spot ETFs, government accumulation, and a shift in political stance in Washington.
Key Factors for a $1 Million Bitcoin
Zhao emphasized the important role of U.S. spot exchange-traded funds in creating a “structurally different bid” for Bitcoin. “Most of the money in the U.S. comes from institutional investors. The ETFs are pivotal because they bring traditional institutional money into crypto,” he noted, adding that this trend is already driving Bitcoin’s price upwards. Though he refrained from disclosing specific allocations, Zhao pointed out that regulated products now provide pensions and endowments with a compliance framework lacking in 2021, moving Bitcoin from merely “a trade” to a genuine “treasury allocation.”
Equally important, according to Zhao, is the swift reorientation of U.S. political attitudes since Donald Trump’s return. “The U.S. is now completely different from how it was just a hundred days ago… Trump is back, and they’re quite pro-crypto,” he remarked. This policy change has implications that Zhao believes are often overlooked: foreign governments may feel encouraged to invest in Bitcoin. He noted that while he hopes everyday citizens would invest first, they already had a decade and a half to engage.
Zhao’s final pillar is the impact of negative incidents like the FTX collapse, suggesting that such events push capital towards Bitcoin, which has remained resilient amid controversies. “Anything involving fraud and deception must come to an end… Bitcoin has none of that counterparty risk,” he explained, citing its predictable supply in contrast to the multitude of cryptocurrencies, most of which are likely to fail. He acknowledged that while meme-coins can be fun, “Bitcoin is where the institutions are heading, and they far outweigh the meme investors.”
When asked if Bitcoin’s institutional adoption could compromise its decentralized nature, Zhao recognized the inherent challenge. “As a pioneer, you usually want the government to arrive last,” he acknowledged, but asserted that fungibility remains unbiased. “In a decentralized world, we can’t control others’ actions or governmental intentions,” he stated. He framed the issue as a testament to Bitcoin’s ability to integrate hostile forces while continuing to function effectively.
As of the latest update, Bitcoin is trading at $94,373.
