Bitcoin is demonstrating intriguing price action as it hovers near its all-time high, teasing the possibility of a breakout. Recently, the cryptocurrency surged past the $110,000 threshold but was unable to maintain that momentum. However, the bulls are actively defending the $105,000 level, which now serves as a critical support zone. This robust structure hints at a potential bullish continuation, especially if buying pressure intensifies in the upcoming days.
Renowned analyst Axel Adler has identified a potent indicator stemming from the 30-day percentile funding rate on major exchanges. His observations reveal that when this metric dips to the 50% mark, it often signals a local bottom, paving the way for a reversal and a renewed bullish trend.
Provided that the funding remains neutral, and the price stays above the $105,000 region, Bitcoin seems poised for a possible leg higher. A breakthrough above previous highs could be imminent.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Funding Rate Patterns for Future Movements
Bitcoin is gearing up for a significant movement, continually testing the range just below its all-time peak of $112,000. While bullish sentiment prevails, the inability to surpass this critical barrier may hint at an impending pullback. Analysts caution that failing to enter price discovery could lead to a swift correction, possibly driving the price below $100,000. This growing unpredictability aligns with a broader market cool-off after a volatile period.
Interestingly, US stock markets are setting new records, and macroeconomic pressures have begun to subside after an extended phase of turmoil. With inflation stabilizing, investor confidence is gradually returning to risk-oriented assets. This transition supports Bitcoin’s bullish long-term narrative, although short-term risks still warrant attention.
Adler points out noteworthy insights that enrich our understanding of the current market environment. His research into the 30-day percentile funding rate reveals a consistent trend—each time the rate nears the 50% threshold, it signals a local bottom followed by a robust rally. The most recent instance occurred in April 2025, which preceded a significant rise to $112,000. Currently, the rate is sitting at 54%, suggesting persistent bullish momentum.
Nevertheless, a degree of caution is advisable. A rise in this metric towards the 80% level could indicate an over-leveraged market, foreshadowing a potential correction. As it stands, Bitcoin’s outlook appears favorable; however, whether bulls can push it into new price realms or if hesitance leads to a more significant retreat remains to be seen.
BTC’s Resistance Zone: A Breakout May Be on the Horizon
Bitcoin has shown impressive resilience as it approaches its historical highs, currently trading near $108,790 on a 12-hour chart. The $109,300 level acts as a stubborn resistance, having resisted several attempts since May. While the bulls have consistently defended the $103,600 support area, which corresponds with earlier consolidation zones and carries psychological importance, this range of $103,600 to $109,300 is forming a multi-week consolidation pattern, suggesting a potential breakout is nearing.
The 50 and 100 simple moving averages (SMAs), currently at $106,318 and $106,596 respectively, are trending upward, providing essential near-term support. The 200 SMA, resting at $98,837, highlights the strength of the macro uptrend. Trading volume remains neutral, with no indication of a breakout or breakdown yet, though a slight compression in volatility is often a precursor to more significant price movements.
If Bitcoin successfully breaks and maintains a position above $109,300, it may rapidly ascend towards new heights and enter a phase of price discovery. Conversely, failing to sustain this level could lead to another test of $106,000 or even the $103,600 support base. With macroeconomic conditions stabilizing and bullish sentiment returning, the upcoming sessions will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView
