Bitcoin is facing challenges as the initial optimism wanes, and sellers are starting to take charge. After a period of resilience, BTC is currently testing the important support range of $92,000 to $93,000, looking to establish this level as a foundation for further growth. However, if selling pressure intensifies, a drop below this zone could lead to a more significant downturn and indicate a weakening trend.

Analyst Axel Adler pointed out a significant risk: during this bullish phase, short-term holders often cash out once their Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) surpasses 40%. Traditionally, this marks when traders begin to sell, increasing market supply and exerting downward pressure on prices. With Bitcoin stalling around $98,000 and momentum diminishing, caution is growing among traders.

For now, the structure remains intact, but BTC needs to maintain the $92K area to prevent a critical support level from turning into resistance. A rebound from this point could restore bullish sentiment, but failing to hold may lead to increased bearishness. As market players observe closely, Bitcoin is entering a crucial phase that may determine its trend for weeks ahead.

Bitcoin Approaches Critical Range: Buyers Eye $100K Breakout

Bitcoin is navigating a vital price range, where dipping below $90,000 could signal a negative momentum shift, while surpassing $100,000 could ignite a robust new phase in the bull run. After facing persistent selling pressure from its all-time highs, BTC is demonstrating renewed strength and attempting to set a broader bullish trend for the market. The recent move above $92K was an essential technical milestone, yet bulls must defend this level to generate momentum for a sustainable breakout.

Market conditions remain unstable, influenced by economic uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions, leading to unpredictable fluctuations in both crypto and traditional markets. Nevertheless, Bitcoin’s price actions suggest that bulls are momentarily gaining traction.

Adler discussed the behavior of short-term holders (1–3 months), typically aggressive market players, including many who trade Bitcoin through ETFs. In this bullish cycle, when their NUPL exceeds 40%, they usually take profits, adding to selling pressure. Presently, NUPL sits at just 8%, with its 30-day SMA still in the negative at -2%, indicating short-term holders are not yet actively selling.

This low NUPL level implies that immediate selling risks are minimal, reinforcing a bullish outlook. As long as NUPL remains low, Bitcoin has room to rise ahead of any profit-taking. The upcoming days are vital—maintaining position above $90K and striving for $100K could facilitate a breakout. Conversely, falling short may lead to renewed weaknesses. Bitcoin is at a crucial crossroads in this cycle.

Price Movement Overview: Resilient But Encountering Resistance

Bitcoin is trading around $94,158 after a slight dip from a recent high near $97,000. The daily chart indicates BTC is significantly above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $90,542 and the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $86,381, suggesting the broader trend remains positive.

Since breaking through the $90K mark in April, Bitcoin has seen strong gains but is now consolidating beneath the psychologically significant $100K resistance. Trading volume is starting to decline, reflecting uncertainty as bulls and bears vie for dominance. Sustaining above $92K would bolster the bullish case, paving the way for a possible breakout toward $100K and the previous cycle peak of $103,600.

However, dropping below $92K could indicate diminished momentum and raise the chances of revisiting the 200-day SMA near $90K, which is now a key support level that traders are monitoring closely.

In summary, Bitcoin remains fundamentally strong, but the upcoming days will be crucial. A decisive move above $97K could catalyze the next growth phase, while slipping below $90K risks shifting the trend to a short-term bearish outlook.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView