Exciting developments are underway as Bitwise has made a significant update to its filing for a spot Dogecoin ETF, igniting optimism among investors and analysts alike. According to predictions from Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, the launch of XRP ETFs is anticipated to precede that of Dogecoin ETFs.
Bitwise Enhances Its Spot Dogecoin ETF Proposal
In a recent filing with the SEC, Bitwise has submitted an amended registration statement for its proposed Dogecoin ETF. This alteration has raised expectations for a possible approval from the SEC in the near future. Notably, in an update on X, Balchunas highlighted that the filing amendment signals positive engagement with the regulatory body.
Further analyzing the situation, Balchunas mentioned that this amendment aligns with recent approvals for other spot ETFs. A key modification in Bitwise’s filing is the introduction of in-kind creations and redemptions. This structure allows authorized participants (APs) to create and redeem shares using DOGE directly, rather than relying solely on cash.
The inclusion of this mechanism was absent in Bitwise’s initial filing made in January this year. As Balchunas noted, getting this feature approved in spot ETFs seems increasingly likely. Besides Bitwise, other firms like 21Shares and Grayscale have also initiated applications for a Dogecoin ETF.
Earlier this month, 21Shares submitted revisions to its own spot DOGE ETF filing. Balchunas remarked that such amendments often follow input from the SEC, hinting that regulators may have provided valuable feedback to these entities.
Grayscale remains the only major player yet to submit updated documentation for its own Dogecoin ETF. However, should the SEC continue to offer guidance, this could change rapidly—a scenario reminiscent of how Solana ETF candidates revamped their filings post-regulatory input.
Comparison of SEC Approval Odds: DOGE vs. XRP ETFs
The outlook from Balchunas and Seyffart suggests that the SEC may hold off on approving Dogecoin ETFs ahead of XRP ETFs. They have adjusted their probability of an XRP ETF approval in 2025 to a high of 95%. In contrast, the likelihood of a Dogecoin ETF approval this year stands at 90%.
This variance can be attributed to several factors, such as XRP’s established regulated futures market via the CME, placing XRP ETFs in a more favorable position compared to their Dogecoin counterparts. Currently, seven asset management firms are vying for an XRP ETF, whereas only three are pursuing a Dogecoin ETF. The imminent resolution of the XRP lawsuit is another factor propelling its approval chances. Nevertheless, both XRP and Dogecoin ETFs are subject to a final SEC deadline of October 17, creating the possibility of simultaneous approvals.
As of this writing, the price of Dogecoin is hovering around $0.16, experiencing a rise over the last 24 hours, based on CoinMarketCap data.
