The conversation surrounding Bitcoin’s market behavior is evolving, particularly with claims that the “Bitcoin cycle theory may be obsolete.” This growing narrative aligns with Bitcoin’s remarkable upward trend and new market dynamics that are reshaping investment strategies.
With the inception of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in early 2024, institutional investors have entered the landscape, bringing a fresh perspective and unpredictability to the cryptocurrency market. This infusion of capital from traditional finance houses has generated excitement but also uncertainty about the future trajectory of Bitcoin.
Interestingly, a market analyst recently raised a pivotal question on social media: What if the classic four-year cycle still holds merit?
Predicting Bitcoin’s Price Surge In The Near Future
On August 16, a prominent analyst, echoing sentiments reminiscent of economist Frank Fetter, explored potential price movements for Bitcoin if the four-year cycle theory is applicable. They suggested that the next 100 days could be crucial for Bitcoin’s valuation.
This speculation is anchored in the Bitcoin Index Performance Since Cycle Low, a metric that illustrates BTC’s price movements over discrete four-year cycles. It underscores the inherent cyclicality present in various financial markets, particularly the evolving cryptocurrency space.
The analyst provided a visual representation of Bitcoin’s historical performance, highlighting cycles from 2015 to 2018 and from 2018 to 2022. The chart revealed that during the previous cycle, Bitcoin’s price skyrocketed by 110 times, achieving its peak after 1,068 days.
In contrast, the cycle from 2018 to 2022 saw Bitcoin reach its peak after 1,060 days, but with a comparatively modest gain of 21 times. This reflects a more developed and stabilized market environment. Currently, the ongoing cycle has seen Bitcoin rise by 7.3 times since its 2022 low, with 997 days elapsed. If the old four-year cycle theory holds, Bitcoin might be just about 100 days away from a significant price peak.
From an optimistic viewpoint, this indicates the possibility of another price surge ahead. However, if Bitcoin continues its upward trajectory beyond this projected timeframe, it could fundamentally alter the cycle theory, leading to prolonged bullish phases and brief downturns in the future.
Current Bitcoin Market Snapshot
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is approximately $117,625, marking a subtle 0.3% increase in the last 24 hours.
