Recent changes in market dynamics have ignited discussions around the possible shift in the historical Bitcoin price cycle. Traditionally, this cycle has been instrumental in predicting the onset of bull and bear markets. However, emerging trends suggest that this pattern may no longer hold true, potentially leading to unexpected price movements. Just as speculations about an early bull market arose, a premature bear market may also be on the horizon.
Shifts Influencing the Bitcoin Price Dynamics
The timing of Bitcoin’s halving, which takes place every four years and reduces mining rewards by half, has historically marked significant price changes in the cryptocurrency. Typically, bull markets initiate post-halving, characterized by Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs approximately a year later. The subsequent bear market follows this peak until the next halving occurs. This sequence has predominated in the last three cycles and is set to face scrutiny in the upcoming years.
In the last halving year of 2024, expectations revolved around Bitcoin achieving new highs in 2025. Surprisingly, the introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved by regulatory authorities in early 2024, escalated Bitcoin’s value much earlier than anticipated, witnessing a surge that took investors by surprise.
As the market evolved through 2024, the price trajectories displayed remarkable growth, with a significant surge following the halving on April 20, leading Bitcoin to exceed $100,000 by December—a striking increase from its previous benchmark.
The growth is not solely attributable to ETFs; the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, largely initiated by Michael Saylor’s entity in 2020, has also played a critical role. As of 2025, this company holds an impressive amount of Bitcoin, further solidifying its influence in the marketplace.
The unique convergence of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and a plethora of Bitcoin treasury firms indicates that the landscape is evolving differently from past cycles. This could redefine the existing 4-year cycle paradigm, leading to substantial investments that challenge historic norms.
Considerations If The Bitcoin Cycle Remains Relevant
Analysts like Frank Fetter from Vibe Capital Management have ideas regarding the implications if the 4-year cycle persists. Historically, there has been a pattern of approximately 1,060 days occurring between Bitcoin’s cyclical lows and highs.
Current estimations suggest that Bitcoin is edging closer to this cyclical high post its 2022 lows, leaving a window where all-time highs could still be realized. Fetter mentions that the next few months may be crucial in determining if Bitcoin can achieve its next peak. “If historical patterns continue, the next few cycles could be pivotal,” he commented.
