This year marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of the cryptocurrency landscape. The dynamics are shifting, leading many investors to reassess their traditional approaches and assumptions about market cycles. The once-reliable pattern of Bitcoin’s four-year halving events and market trends appears to be undergoing significant transformation, particularly as we approach 2025.
Industry experts like Matt Hougan, the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management, argue that this is not just a temporary phase but rather a fundamental change in the market’s behavior. He contends that the classic four-year cycle may no longer serve as a dependable framework for analyzing cryptocurrency trends. The alteration stems from two major factors: a diminishing reliance on transitional events like halvings and a shift towards broader, long-term trends that defy the traditional rhythm.
As we witness the surge of crypto ETFs, an increase in institutional participation, and advancements in regulatory frameworks, Hougan posits that enduring trends are starting to define market movements. The inflow of capital from traditional finance into digital assets coupled with legal clarity—exemplified by initiatives like the GENIUS Act—suggests that investor expectations may need to be recalibrated significantly.
Transformative Forces Influencing Cryptocurrency Markets
As Hougan points out, the relevance of each halving event diminishes with time, resulting in less impact on market momentum. Unlike previous years when interest rate changes pressured risk assets, the current economic environment stands more favorably for cryptocurrency investment.
Furthermore, the risks associated with unregulated market actors appear to be reducing as regulatory measures become more robust and institutional players enter the field. The rise of transparent and regulated financial entities is contributing to market stabilization, decreasing the cyclical vulnerabilities of the past.
Additionally, Hougan highlights an emerging concern: the increasing impact of treasury firms that manage vast quantities of cryptocurrencies. Their capacity to sway market direction on a short-term basis warrants careful observation.
At the same time, larger, transformative trends are unfolding. The transition of funds into cryptocurrency ETFs underscores a multi-year paradigm shift initiated in 2024. Institutional adoption is gaining traction, with more organizations—such as pension funds and educational endowments—beginning to explore digital assets. Regulatory progress has accelerated starting in January 2025, and the influx of Wall Street investments is just beginning following the recent passage of the Genius Act.
“These long-term pro-crypto forces will overshadow the traditional ‘four-year cycle’ dynamics,” states Hougan. He forecasts that 2026 could yield noteworthy growth—not driven by another speculative surge, but rather by a “sustained and stable boom.” He acknowledges that while volatility may persist, the maturation of the cryptocurrency sector is undeniable and advancing rapidly. Investors must adapt their strategies to thrive in this new environment.
Strengthening Long-Term Crypto Trends
A detailed examination of the monthly logarithmic chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization reveals a strong positive trajectory, currently hovering around $3.82 trillion. After an extensive consolidation period that began in mid-2022, the market has been steadily rising, inching closer to its previous all-time high range of $3.9 trillion to $4 trillion. This zone has historically served as a crucial resistance area and remains a significant psychological threshold.
From a technical analysis perspective, the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) exhibits an upward trend and currently stands at $1.88 trillion, significantly lower than the current market value, suggesting robust macroeconomic backing. Notably, trading volume has risen sharply in recent months—particularly evident in the last two bullish candles—indicating renewed investor confidence and institutional participation, consistent with increased ETF activity and heightened regulatory transparency.
The market’s structure further illustrates higher lows and higher highs on a monthly basis, reinforcing the bullish trend’s resilience. As long as the total crypto market capitalization remains above $3.2 trillion and manages to secure additional monthly closings above $3.8 trillion, the likelihood of a breakthrough into new price territories increases markedly.
The featured image is sourced from Dall-E, and the chart information is derived from TradingView.
