In recent weeks, Bitcoin has experienced relatively stable trading activity, hovering around the $75,000 mark and showing difficulty in breaking past the significant threshold of $80,000. Its ability to maintain support at the $76,000 level for three consecutive weeks highlights this area as a crucial benchmark for traders. Nevertheless, a notable metric from on-chain analysis could indicate a potential turning point for Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
Key Indicator Suggests Potential Bottom for Bitcoin
On May 22, a notable analyst shared insights on a promising bottoming indicator derived from two specific historical price metrics: the 6-month to 10-year Realized Price, showing the average acquisition cost for long-term holders at approximately $60,316, and the 0 to 10-year Realized Price, reflecting a broader market average cost basis at around $64,412. The relationship between these two averages serves as an indicator of stress among long-term holders compared to the mainstream market. Traditionally, when this ratio dips below 0.936 and subsequently retraces toward 1.0, it has coincided with the precise bottom points in previous Bitcoin cycles.
Historical data indicates that when the black line approaches the green line, it often signals the end of a bear market and the establishment of a significant market bottom. The current indicator has reached 0.936.
In 2015, the metric rose from 0.936 to 1.0 in 59 days; in the bear market of 2018-2019, this recovery took 66 days; and after the FTX collapse in November 2022, it took 50 days. pic.twitter.com/kr6P4m7bBy
— Analyst (@CryptoChan) May 22, 2026
This metric suggests that when the ratio touches 1.0, the average cost for long-term holders surpasses the broader market cost, indicating that even the most devoted holders may be facing losses. This situation tends to lead to a significant reduction in selling pressure and widespread market panic. Given the current reading of 0.936, if historical trends hold true, Bitcoin may see a bottoming opportunity around mid-to-late July 2026.
Current Bitcoin Price Analysis
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $75,269, marking a decrease of 2.84% over the past week. The asset’s performance has also shown negative trends on more extended timeframes with losses of 4.65% weekly and 3.55% over the month.
According to CoinCodex data, the Fear & Greed Index currently rests at 28, indicating a notable level of fear in the market. Despite this, analysts from CoinCodex anticipate a possible short squeeze that could drive Bitcoin’s price up to $83,354 within the next few days. Their projections suggest that within a month, the price may rise to $77,741, while estimates for a three-month outlook reflect a target of $90,529. This projection implies a potential gain of 16% from the current price level.
