The current state of the XRP market reveals significant fluctuations, with prices hovering between $2.80 and $2.83, struggling to break past the crucial $3.00 threshold that many investors are eyeing.
In the derivatives market, enthusiasm seems to be waning. Futures open interest has declined to around $8.85 billion, down from a peak of over $9 billion. Moreover, recent liquidation metrics highlight stress among bullish traders, with long positions losing more than $11 million in just one day compared to a mere $2.4 million for their short counterparts.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently languishing in the low to mid-40s, and the MACD is showing a negative trend. This technical setup suggests a period of consolidation or potential further decline unless there is a robust resurgence in buying interest.
Whales Shift Tactics: XRP Distribution Increasing
On a deeper analysis of on-chain activity, signs of caution are evident. Recent exchange data indicates that over 320 million XRP moved to centralized exchanges within the past week, resulting in exchange reserves reaching nine-month highs—a typical precursor to selling.
Furthermore, whale accounts holding between 1 to 10 million XRP have offloaded approximately 440 million tokens over the last month, contributing additional supply to a challenging market environment.
In a noteworthy shift, BNB has overtaken XRP for the third-largest market capitalization as activity across the BNB Chain reaches new heights. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. spot ETF developments also clouds XRP’s longer-term catalysts. Until these issues resolve or there is a reversal in outflows, upward movements are likely to encounter significant selling pressure.
Essential Price Points for XRP: $2.68 and $3.15 as Deciding Factors
From a technical perspective, XRP is trapped within a descending triangle formation, with critical support resting between $2.68 and $2.70. Market veterans advise caution, noting that a weekly close beneath $2.687 could trigger a downward move to around $2.22, translating to a potential decline of approximately 20% from current levels.
Immediate resistance is observed between $2.92 and $3.00. Should this barrier be breached, the next significant target to watch will be $3.15, which would invalidate the bearish outlook and open the door to targets between $3.60 and $4.50.
In the short term, investors should monitor:
- Active spot-led buying and a decline in funding on price increases (more sustainable than leverage-driven spikes).
- Notable changes in exchange reserves (a decrease could alleviate selling pressure).
- A rebuilding of open interest that avoids overcrowded long positions.
With the decline in futures interest and increasing whale distributions, the risk profile appears tilted towards further downside as XRP remains below the critical $3.00 mark. For bulls to regain control, a substantial high-volume recovery above $3.00–$3.15 is necessary; otherwise, a retest of $2.70—and potentially a drop to $2.22—remains a distinct possibility.
Cover image from ChatGPT, XRPUSD on Tradingview
