In a recent analysis, crypto expert Benjamin Cowen highlighted the potential for Bitcoin’s market to stabilize during the fourth quarter of 2026 amid ongoing price fluctuations. Speaking during a live broadcast, Cowen examined the cryptographic currency’s current decline while Bitcoin traded near $77,000, identifying critical support levels that could steer its short-term trajectory.

Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin’s recent price dip had brought it to the vicinity of the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), historically a significant indicator for traders. He noted that the range between $73,000 and $77,000 represents a vital zone where buying activity might commence, although he also cautioned that this support is not guaranteed to hold.

Possible Outcomes for Bitcoin’s Future

Cowen discussed two key scenarios concerning Bitcoin’s trajectory. The first scenario suggests a potential rapid loss of current support, which could mimic the dramatic sell-off experienced during the 2022 FTX crisis. He recalled that period, during which Bitcoin plummeted approximately 24-25% in just two days, leading to a swift market bottom. Cowen speculated that such a panic sell-off might allow Bitcoin to reach a cycle bottom before the U.S. midterm elections in late October.

Alternatively, in the second scenario, he predicts that Bitcoin may rebound from its current support levels, followed by another downturn in November to establish a final low. In this case, he believes that a rise above $76,000 towards the $79,000 to $80,000 range would strengthen this scenario. Historically, significant drops have often coincided with post-midterm election periods, although Cowen emphasized the unique 2026 market conditions could lead to pre-election selling pressure.

Learning from Past Cycles

Cowen reflected on Bitcoin’s historical patterns, noting that past cycles show significant downturns often follow a breakout above previous peaks. He explained that two consecutive weekly closes below these peaks could suggest a false breakout, potentially leading to sizable declines. Cowen highlighted that in his analysis, previous bottoms have occurred around day 1,432 or 1,436 in past cycles, and noted that the current cycle has reached day 1,439, marking a crucial moment in historical context.

Despite these patterns, Cowen pointed out the absence of a significant surge in trading volume, which typically characterizes substantial market lows. He indicated that heightened trading volume, coupled with sell-offs, might signal an impending capitulation phase.

Catalysts for Market Movement

Recent events surrounding the Binance attack have also been cited as a potential risk contributing to the selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market. Cowen acknowledged that he has not fully assessed the impacts of this incident but underscored how major market crises often accelerate the formation of market bottoms. Additionally, he noted the pronounced selling pressure in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing a ~9% decline, echoing patterns observed in prior cycles.

Overall, Cowen expressed that the correlation between the stock market correction and the cryptocurrency downturn aligns closely with historical trends. He also suggested that the U.S. dollar could maintain its strength well into the year, potentially impacting the broader market including Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies.

Looking Ahead to 2027

Looking at the long-term picture, Cowen proposed that should Bitcoin’s current price correction align with previous cycles, a new bull market could emerge in 2027. He noted Bitcoin’s significant decline of approximately 77% during the 2022 bear market but indicated that a similarly steep drop in the current cycle is unlikely. However, he remains unsure whether Bitcoin will establish strong support at the $76,000 level, as there’s a possibility for the price to test lower levels akin to its realized value.

Cowen advised investors to approach the market with caution, particularly in light of potential panic selling, while reminding them that Bitcoin has historically shown quick recoveries following steep dips.