On July 2, the landscape of cryptocurrency investing shifted with the launch of REX-Osprey’s Solana ETF. This development marks a significant step as SOL becomes the third cryptocurrency to have a spot ETF in the United States, following in the footsteps of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Recent insights from Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart point towards a looming possibility of an XRP ETF emerging next in line.
Momentum Builds for an XRP ETF
In a recent update on X, Seyffart mentioned the strong potential for an XRP ETF following the successful launch of the Solana ETF. This is grounded in their statistical analysis, forecasting a remarkable 95% approval likelihood for the XRP fund within this year. They had previously projected similar odds for the SOL ETF, which has now been successfully introduced to the market.
In an innovative twist, REX-Osprey’s initiative on July 2 involved launching the first-ever Solana staking ETF. This product not only enables direct SOL investments but also offers staking rewards to participating investors. Furthermore, the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund, forecasted to have a 95% approval chance, has received the green light from the SEC, elevating XRP ETF aspirations to new heights.
Nate Geraci, a well-known market analyst, posits that the recent SEC approval for Grayscale’s fund conversion further underscores the likelihood of a spot XRP ETF arriving soon. He also speculates on other altcoin ETFs, including those for Cardano and Litecoin, awaiting the SEC’s nod. However, he acknowledges that a Litecoin ETF could see approval slightly ahead of the XRP option.
The Litecoin ETF also enjoys favorable odds at 95%, with a critical SEC deadline set for October 2. Notably, the XRP ETF submission has a submission deadline shortly thereafter on October 17, adding urgency to market watchers.
Traders Predict XRP ETF Launch
Recent data from Polymarket reflects strong market sentiment, with traders favoring an XRP ETF launch ahead of alternatives like the Litecoin ETF. Current analytics project an 87% probability that the XRP fund will receive approval by the end of this year, contrasted with an 86% probability for the LTC ETF’s success by December.
Approval expectations for other altcoin ETFs remain comparatively subdued. Seyffart and Balchunas cite a 90% approval likelihood for Cardano, Dogecoin, Hedera, Avalanche, and Polkadot ETFs this year. Traders at Polymarket are estimating around an 83% and 76% chance for Cardano and Dogecoin ETFs, respectively.
Additionally, Ripple’s choice to withdraw its cross-appeal against the SEC is generating optimism among experts like Geraci, bolstering confidence that an XRP ETF is on the horizon.
As of the latest updates, XRP is trading at approximately $2.26, reflecting a notable increase of over 3% within the last 24 hours, as per CoinMarketCap data.
