Recent analysis reveals that the current price of Bitcoin has dipped below the average cost basis for many Bitcoin spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), indicating a challenging market atmosphere.

Current Status of Bitcoin Spot ETF Inflows

According to recent insights from on-chain expert Checkmate, there has been a significant trend of decreasing inflows related to Bitcoin spot ETFs. These financial products provide investors with a pathway to engage with Bitcoin without needing to own the asset directly. With their establishment in January 2024, these US-based ETFs have experienced remarkable adoption.

However, the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market has led to notable outflows, especially in the last couple of weeks.

Presented below is the visual representation from the analyst that illustrates the flow of Bitcoin spot ETF investments as well as other essential metrics:

The data highlights that Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced record outflow events of $1.33 billion and $1.49 billion in the previous fortnight, marking these as some of the most significant outflow periods on record. In tandem, Bitcoin prices have dropped below the $80,000 threshold. The current trading value is now situated beneath the average cost basis of these spot ETFs, which indicates that a majority of the investments are currently at a loss.

In the net flow analysis, Checkmate drew attention to specific weeks when inflows contributed to this decline. The last substantial inflow occurred in late 2024, with subsequent inflows not matching their previous highs. “Assuming a cost basis reflective of the date of inflow, 62% of ETF contributions are now registering negative performance,” the analyst explained.

Historically, holders of BTC spot ETFs have not encountered substantial losses, primarily benefiting during prolonged price increases. There was a minor setback in mid-2024 when Bitcoin slightly fell below the average cost basis, but the price remained relatively stable until now.

This recent decline marks a pivotal moment for ETF investors, presenting them with the prospect of experiencing the first major downturn in market conditions. Observers will keenly monitor how these fund inflows will evolve over the forthcoming weeks as the market reacts.

Analyzing Bitcoin’s Price Movement

Following a drop to $75,000 on Sunday, Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery, with the latest estimates placing its value around $77,800 as the new week unfolds.