Bitwise is focusing on a significant issue beyond Bitcoin’s recent fluctuations: the approaching need to refinance nearly $30 trillion in global debt by 2026.
The firm suggests that rising Japanese government bond yields and recent warnings from the IMF regarding decreasing demand for government debt could create a more challenging environment for markets. Bitwise believes this scenario may eventually benefit Bitcoin.
The Increasing Pressure of Global Debt
As noted by Bitwise, the potential stress from refinancing could become critical, especially if central banks respond with increased liquidity. They have positioned Bitcoin as an asset that operates independently from government balance sheets, providing a unique role amidst difficulties with sovereign borrowing.
The report also connects Bitcoin’s market potential with real interest rates. Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin tends to perform better when real yields decline. A combination of persistent inflation and a pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes could create conditions favorable for Bitcoin’s growth.
Following a peak above $80,000 in May, Bitcoin has retraced to around $70,000, influenced by ETF outflows and a general decline in market sentiment.
In May 2026, Bitcoin regained levels above $80k, yet encountered resistance between the $80k–$85k range, ultimately falling back to $72k. Factors included ETP outflows, stress in sovereign bonds, and increasing long-term holding.
Read more in our latest Bitcoin Macro Investor update. pic.twitter.com/oM5ctCIVxW
— Bitwise in Europe (@Bitwise_Europe) June 1, 2026
Navigating a Challenging Trading Environment
Bitwise highlighted that the recent price increase was fueled by a short squeeze, improved on-chain metrics, and approximately $166.5 million in net inflows into Bitcoin ETPs. Long-term holders have contributed positively by adding around 125,000 BTC in the previous month.
However, this momentum shifted as global Bitcoin ETPs experienced more than $1 billion in net outflows, degrading market confidence as Bitcoin struggled to breach the crucial $80,000 to $85,000 range.
Bitwise identified this price zone as vital for determining market stability. The price action here is likely to influence perceptions concerning the market’s health.
The Implications of Holding Patterns
Despite decreasing demand, Bitwise notes that the supply dynamics of Bitcoin are shifting tighter. Currently, long-term investors hold a record 14.85 million BTC, accounting for about 73% of the circulating supply.
It is also reported that:
- 60% of Bitcoin has remained unmoved for over a year
- 48.5% has not changed hands for more than two years
- 42.8% has been dormant for more than three years
- 33% has not moved for at least five years
This inactivity is tightening available supply even as buyer participation has been noticeably slower.
Understanding Price Levels
Bitwise identifies the $78,000 to $80,000 range as critical to watch, with the $83,000 to $85,000 area serving as a significant resistance level. Additionally, they highlighted $73,000 as key support and $95,000 as a potential target for upward movement.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin was priced at $69,460, reflecting a decrease of 4.7% over the previous 24 hours, according to data from coingecko.
Image courtesy of FXStreet, chart provided by TradingView
