Polymarket has announced a new offering that allows users in the United States to make short-term price predictions on popular cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Set to launch on October 27, 2026, this new product will feature five-minute prediction contracts.

The unique contracts will let users wager on whether the prices of these cryptocurrencies will rise or fall within a five-minute window. Instead of trading the cryptocurrencies directly, participants can buy contracts that indicate their expected price movement. The outcomes will have only two possibilities: either the price increases or it decreases. Successful predictions will payout at $1 per contract, while unsuccessful ones will result in a loss of the investment.

Determining Price Outcomes

The pricing for the contracts is designed to minimize the influence of volatile price swings, particularly at the closing moment. Rather than utilizing a single instant price, the system will average the last 60 seconds of index observations to determine the final outcome. For Bitcoin, the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index will be used, alongside relevant dollar-based real-time indices for Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Notably, if the closing price equals the starting price, it will also count as a win.

While this innovative prediction market expands on Polymarket’s previous offering of 15-minute contracts, it introduces higher risk factors associated with shorter timeframes, market fluctuations, and transaction fees. It’s important for users to consider these risks carefully before participating.

Polymarket US, which operates under QCX LLC and is distinct from its international counterpart, is regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

This is not investment advice.